Dip in oil prices pushes rouble down

Dec 4th, 2009 | By Caroline Clayfield | Category: Rouble News

The price of crude oil dropped below $78 dollar a barrel on Wednesday (2nd December), prompting the rouble to fall to its weakest level of the week. It closed at 36.0044 roubles versus the dollar-euro currency basket.

An unexpected build in US crude stocks brought on the dip in oil's value, and it came on the heels of two relatively stable days for the Russian currency.

Last Friday had seen the rouble trade around the 36.00 level as a result of fears about Dubai's debt - something which weakened the currencies of most emerging markets.

In comments reported by Bloomberg this week, Martin Gilman - former head of the International Monetary Fund's Moscow office - claimed rouble volatility and damage to the Russian economy could be averted with another two-point cut in the country's key interest rate. Without such a cut, he suggested, Russia will attract speculative capital.

The central bank is "far too reluctant to move aggressively", he continued, before advocating a reduction of the refinancing rate to as low as 5.5 per cent by the end of next year. He concluded: "Russia has become a prime target for the carry trade."

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