Experts anticipate further weakening of the rouble and economy

Feb 27th, 2009 | By | Category: Rouble News

According to a poll of 14 economists, illness who had greatly differing views on what to expect in the year to come, the Russian economy is set to contract by 2.5% in 2009, which is close to the official forecast from the government, expecting contraction to reach 2.2%.

However, the economists also expect a slight recovery in the final quarter of the year, with the economy expected to grow 0.2% as a result of the devaluation of the rouble.

One of the economists, Yelena Sharipova from Renaissance Capital says, “The policy of gradual devaluation of the rouble should bring results in 6-9 months through substitution of imports in food processing, manufacturing and construction.” She expects growth in the final quarter to reach 3.3%.

However, many forecasts were much less positive. Such as that from Igor Nikolayev who expects a 10% contraction over the year, with a 7% fall in the final quarter. He says, “The economic contraction will soon get a new kick from a sharp fall in consumer demand and investment.”

The economists were also asked for their expectations for the rouble. The research concluded that they expected the Central Bank’s ability to defend the rouble against further drops will fail towards the end of 2009 when it will fall deeper, to 41.55 against the basket of Dollars and Euros.

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