Despite recent positive statements from the Deputy Prime Minister, about the state of the economy, Russia’s Finance Minister and Deputy Economy Minister have been warning that the rouble is not stable, as oil prices are likely to fall again soon.

Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, said oil prices are expected to resume their downward trend soon, “despite a rise in world stock markets and a certain increase in oil prices, we should not relax. Most likely it is a temporary improvement.”

Although the rouble has been reaching two-month highs and Russian oil blend Urals are currently worth $9 more than the $41 per barrel predicted in the Russian government’s budget for the  year, risks remain, says Kudrin.

He predicts a second “wave” of problems for the Central Bank later in 2009. “There is a risk that not now, but this autumn, there could be another wave due to deteriorating of corporate finances on the ground, the lack of domestic demand and weak credit support,” says Kudrin

Non performing loans increased to 2.1% at the end of March, up from 1.7% two months earlier, while bad debt provisions were worth 59 billion roubles at the beginning of 2009, according to Sberbank, the state-controlled lender.