Pause in rouble rally amid negative oil price backdrop

Nov 13th, 2009 | By | Category: Rouble News

While recent oil strength and returning investor demand for emerging markets have promoted the rouble's rally, this week saw a pause in the Russian currency's progress.

It closed at 28.84 versus the dollar on Thursday (12th November), though that was still more than 11 per cent up since the beginning of September.

According to Reuters, the rouble eased to 35.25 against a euro-dollar basket – that's 15 kopecks away from the latest level at which Russia's central bank intervened to slow down the currency's rally.

"There was a negative backdrop today (from oil prices)," commented Metallinvestbank dealer Sergei Romanchuk. "You can call it profit-taking. It is unlikely that anyone is seriously shorting (the rouble) at the moment."

Although this week's third-quarter GDP figures confirmed that the Russian economy is beginning to emerge from the economic downturn, the country's president made no reference to the state of the rouble as he addressed the nation.

Despite Dmitry Medvedev's lack of comment, sources from the Russian central bank warned investors against viewing the rouble as "a one-way appreciation bet", as it could come under pressure from eventual rate cuts and an influx of liquidity from the budget at the end of the year.

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