For the first time since the Central Bank highlighted 39 against a euro-dollar basket as the boundary for currency fluctuations, the rouble has strengthened beyond this level. It reached 38.92 per basket, gaining 1% on 19 March 2009.

The rouble has responded well to a five week high in oil prices and has benefitted from the weakening of the dollar sparked by the Federal Reserve’s decision to print more money.

Central Bank officials have commented to agencies, such as Reuters, that the 39-41 range is currently appropriate, but dealers are not yet reporting any intervention from the Central Bank. However, some expect to see intervention soon, if the currency continues to strengthen. Vladimir Osakovsky from Unicredit told Reuters, “It is interesting that the central bank is not buying foreign currency…Most likely [intervention] will happen, 39 is a level where we could expect some kind of support.”

Some analysts are now suggesting that there is more realistic scope for the rouble strengthening than weakening, in light of its movements in the first quarter, since the Central Bank announced it was abandoning the gradual devaluation strategy.